Do or Die by Nadeem Arif Najmi

The intelligentsia of Pakistan, its lawyers, journalists, teachers, students and civil rights activists are almost united in believing that Pakistan can only survive and succeed if the armed forces concentrate on defending our borders and allow the democratically elected representatives of the people to govern the country and the judiciary and media to play their full part in providing the checks and balances essential to democratic governance. I say ‘almost’ because there are some ‘doves’ who still believe that avoiding confrontation is a safer bet, and Musharraf should be allowed to manipulate the law up to a point in order to pave the way for  a ‘stable’ and peaceful transition to democracy.

On the surface of it they have a point.  ‘President’ Musharraf has removed his uniform and it’s widely thought General Kiyani has no intentions of interfering in politics even on his former bosses’ instructions. The doves demand simply that all restrictions on the media should be removed, political parties should be given a level-playing field and a fair and transparent election should take place under a restored constititution.  They believe that it is ‘too much’ to expect Musharraf to restore the deposed judges of the Supreme and High Courts and Musharraf should be accepted as a legitimate President to avoid ‘anarchy’ even if his claim to be so is highly suspect in terms of the law and constitution.

Their logic is deceptively simple. Let Musharraf get what he wants this once, and be content with a less than perfect democracy because the alternative could be violence, permanent martial law or even civil war. This logic is flawed in several key respects and is a fundamental misreading of the present situation. As that valiant guardian of the constitution, former Supreme Court Bar Association President Munir A. Malik pointed out in his timely article this week (which he wrote from a hospital bed after suffering near fatal renal failure caused by mistreatment in illegal detention) at every stage in the electoral process it is the judiciary that must adjudicate on any question of fraud, rigging or intimidation. If the judiciary is emptied of all independent judges and filled with establishment lackeys who have sworn to obey Musharraf and justify his every move, can anybody actually expect them to behave impartially and take Musharraf’s allies to task for any rigging that might occur? An independent judiciary, as well as a completely free media are essential to fair and free elections as much as an impartial election commission is.

Secondly the ‘doves’ seem utterly ignorant about the objective of the lawyers movement that began after the illegal removal of Chief Justice Iftikhar Choudary on the 9th of March. The aim was not simply to get one judge, however great, restored. It was to bury the dreaded ‘doctrine of necessity’ and to campaign in favour of a judiciary that had the courage to say ‘no’ to the armed forces manipulation of the law and constitution to cling onto power. If Musharraf gets away a second time with committing high treason and illegally replacing independent judges with puppets who have resurrected the spirit of Justice Munir, every potential future military dictator will find the attraction of power too hard to resist. If that happens, Pakistan will never start building the institutions it needs to survive as a federal democratic and Islamic nation. It is essential that the judges are restored and Musharraf is held to account for his crimes, if not we will see the same instability in Pakistan in the next 60 years that we have seen in the last six decades.

This may prove to be toxic for a federation that is dependent on equal representation and democracy for its very existence. Pakistan cannot afford to have its democratic governments removed by army generals or their stooge presidents, and that is exactly what would keep happening but for the fear of an independent judiciary that would act as a buffer against military rule, guaranteeing full terms to governments. Over several decades this would allow a truly democratic culture to flourish in Pakistan of the kind we see in neighbouring India. It is absolutely vital that Chief Justice Ifthikar Choudhary and 60 % of the superior judiciary who refused to take an Oath under the PCO are restored.  Vital, if we want the game of musical chairs to stop so that the public not GCHQ get rid of bad or corrupt governments. Vital, if we want politicians to work hard to earn their votes and to worry about the needs of their constituents not the wishes of a serving or retired army chief. Vital, so that a vibrant media and free judiciary can reign in the corruption and mismanagement witnessed in the era of previous elected governments. If this doesn’t happen we should be prepared for the short and long-term consequences of Musharraf’s ‘peaceful transition to democracy’.

It seems highly likely that Musharraf will rig the election on a massive scale and gets his required indemnity from parliament, probably further amending the constitution to give him even more powers and a longer term as President.  Parliament will be obedient to his commands as will his handpicked Prime Minister. The judiciary will rubber-stamp everything he chooses to do. In other words Musharraf will ride supreme over every institution and Pakistan will continue to be run as one-man show. This dictatorship in the guise of democracy will drive more and more Pakistanis into the arms of secessionists and badly weaken the federation especially in Baluchistan and the Frontier. Musharraf will probably choose to repress his opponents, especially civil rights activists, lawyers and journalists even more brutally than now, amending the constitution to allow him to do this. It will prove impossible to drive him from power no matter how much violence, terrorism, sectarianism and inter-provincial conflict his unquenchable thirst for power will provoke. The only chance to stop this from happening would be for the whole opposition to come together if Musharraf massively rigged the elections to drive him from office and to restore the judges who would also act as check on future democratic governments.

If he doesn’t rig it he might have to escape the country after Nawaz Sharif or Benazir win a majority in parliament and deny him indemnity for treason. If Benazir however relents amid US pressure and provides him with indemnity entering into a coalition with Musharraf supporters, Musharraf and Benazir will have to work together. It’s anybody guess how long these two arrogant, selfish and power-hungry leaders can stomach each other. Before long 58 2B would wave ‘goodbye’ to the elected prime minister and without an independent Supreme Court to worry about, Musharraf would surely bring in a new government subservient to his will or subvert the constititution once again. So much for a ‘transition’ to democracy.

The choice Pakistan now faces is not therefore a stable, orderly but imperfect transfer to a democratic set-up becoming more democratic as time goes on or ‘anarchy’, but rather endless dictatorship and political instability or a truly democratic government held to account for any abuse of power by a ferociously independent media and a truly free judiciary. The choice is between never-ending and self-repeating crises or a do-or-die struggle fought once and for all to create that ‘Other Pakistan’ the Pakistan of Allama Iqbal and Quaid-e-Azam.

Nadeem Arif Najmi is a poet, a thinker, and above all a proud Pakistani. Please send feedback on the post to wasim@otherpakistan.org

- 5th December 2007